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The Nassau Guardian reports that many people are stranded and emergency rescuers are not yet able to reach them. The threat from the storm could not be underestimated a life threatening situation was unfolding in the Bahamas, and continues to persist at the time of writing of this blog. Storm surge, or the rise in sea level due to the strong winds pushing water onshore, was expected to be between 18 and 23 feet above normal tides. Notice that sustained wind speeds in the storm were 180 miles per hour, and wind gusts were expected to exceed 200 miles per hour. Storm effects, such as heavy rain, winds, and storm surge can impact areas very far removed from the center, as we will see in a few minutes. It is very important to note that this cone does NOT represent the area of influence of the storm, only the range of possible locations of the center. Notice that as the forecast time increases, the possible range of solutions increases, and the cone widens. Essentially what this area represents is the range of possible locations of the storm center. The shaded area around the track is what is known as the 'cone of uncertainty'. The black circled letters represent the center location of the storm S is for Tropical Storm, H is for Hurricane, and M is for Major (Category 3 or higher) Hurricane.
![dorian hurricane track models dorian hurricane track models](https://thedaniels-lawgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Hurrican-Dorian-Latest-Track-1-1030x847.jpeg)
The location of the storm at the time of forecast issuance is given by the orange circle. This is a good time to go over what exactly what information theforecast graphics from the National Hurricane Center, such as the one above, contain. But this year, because of the coronavirus pandemic, the WMO held its annual meeting his year by video conference, and won't make decisions about which names will be retired until next year.Forecast track and intensity for Dorian, August 28, 2019. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) which maintains the list of names assigned to hurricanes, routinely retires the names of the most devastating storms. The name Dorian may eventually be retired. More than 29-thousand people left homeless on Abaco and Grand Bahama Island and total damage from Dorian was estimated at $3.4 billion.ĭorian was the strongest hurricane in modern records to make landfall in the Bahamas. Although some models and the official NHC forecast indicated Dorian's forward motion would slow as it neared the Bahamas, none predicted the storm would stall there, pounding Great Abaco for several hours with intense winds and subjecting it to tropical storm force winds for three days. None of the models anticipated Dorian would strengthen into a catastrophic Category 5 storm with sustained wind speeds as high as 185 miles per hour. Where forecasters and the computer models fell short was predicting Dorian's intensity. Graham said, "That means less interaction with land, warm water (and) more time to get geared up and stronger and eventually reach Category 5 strength before reaching the northwestern Bahamas."Īfter the formation stage, the NHC report said forecasters mostly got the storm's track right. The surprise came when, as Dorian formed, its track shifted to the right. Another showed it heading toward Florida. The head of the National Hurricane Center, Ken Graham said, "Dorian's forecast was extremely difficult because we were tracking three centers." One early track for Dorian had it crossing over Hispaniola where high mountains were expected to tear the storm apart. Another model, the GFS, predicted it would form much further east.Īs it began to take shape, forecasters were unable to determine where the storm's center would be. The European computer model, the one that's been most reliable in recent years, failed to predict its formation. Dorian began as a small disturbance in an area in the Caribbean with dry air, which tends to suppress hurricane formation. The verdict? Meteorologists did not do a good job predicting Dorian's formation. Hurricane Dorian caused catastrophic damage to islands in the Northern Bahamas, killing more than 200 people and causing billions of dollars in damage.Ī new report from the National Hurricane Center studied the storm's formation and development and how well meteorologists did predicting its track and intensity.
![dorian hurricane track models dorian hurricane track models](https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/52221253138_bc705e4503_z.jpg)
Hurricane forecasters and the models they depend on failed to anticipate the strength and impact of last year's deadliest storm.